Week 5 Lines: Please Stop Believing

It's easy to get caught up in the past. For most people, its unfathomable how bad the Chargers, Saints, Bears and Bengals are. On the same note, it's hard to believe how good the Browns, Packers, Raiders and Lions are. The first step of grief is denial, which seems to be the word of the day around the ESPN offices in Bristol. Looking at their latest power rankings, they have the Chargers (1-3) over the Chiefs (2-2), who just won in San Diego. The Griese-led Bears (1-3) are ranked at #20, and the defenseless Bengals (1-3) sit at #23, while the Raiders (2-2) and Browns (2-2) are at #24 and #25. The Lions (3-1) sit at #12, behind four teams with worse records. Fortunately, everybody loves Brett Favre, or else the Packers (4-0) would rank somewhere in the 10-20 range. Get over it, experts: it's a whole new year. Now, let's look at the 2007 - I said, 2007 - week 5 lines.

Carolina at New Orleans (New Orleans, -3)

Vegas knows what's up. The three points are for home field, so this line really means that it's a toss up. Going on the road might actually help the Panthers, who have two road wins and two home losses. The Saints, on the other hand, need to win this game. I'm sure everybody is picking New Orleans, because after all, they can't be this bad, can they? As far as this year is concerned they are, but with Carolina trotting out David Carr, not even being on the road can help them. New Orleans 28, Carolina 24.

Jacksonville at Kansas City (Jacksonville, -2 1/2)

The funny thing about ESPN's rankings is, they still view San Diego as a good, but struggling team. But somehow, beating the Chargers on the road doesn't mean anything. See the inconsistencies here? Add the Jaguars' 2 1/2 to the 3 for home field, then 1 more point for being at Arrowhead, and they are saying Jacksonville is 6 1/2 points better than the Chiefs. In what world? Kansas City has a top-3 defense, a Pro Bowl running back and a potential Rookie of the Year. Kansas City 17, Jacksonville 10

Detroit at Washington (Washington, -3 1/2)

With Santana Moss questionable, and the Redskins coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Giants, they are still favored over Detroit. This signifies that they don't believe Detroit is any good, though they just beat Chicago, a team already thought of as being better than they look. I'm getting a headache. Roy Williams currently ranks only behind Randy Moss and Chad Johnson in receiving yards. Detroit is a better team, on a better roll. Detroit 27, Washington 16

Atlanta at Tennessee (Tennessee, -8 1/2)

Atlanta isn't really all that bad. The only missing link is Michael Vick, and I'm not sold that Vick is five games better than Joey Harrington. I like Tennessee when it comes to winning games, but as far as covering an 8 1/2 point spread, no thank you. Vince Young is good, but he's yet to show he can dominate a lesser opponent. Tennessee 21, Atlanta 17

Miami at Houston (Houston, -5 1/2)

Nick Saban really did a number on those Dolphins. There actually is a really good chance that Cam Cameron goes back to San Diego by Week 8, and that Trent Green will go in hiding with Dave Chapelle by the year's end. I think the loss to Atlanta was good for Houston, because they needed to be knocked off the cloud the entire nation put them on. Houston 30, Miami 14

Seattle at Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh, -6 1/2)

This line looks way too high. I also think it's funny that these two teams are built up so much, but nobody realizes that they both have lost to Arizona this year. A lot of question marks for both teams, but the NFC West and AFC North stink. I think these two teams are even, but the experience at head coach trumps that of home field advantage. Seattle 20, Pittsburgh 17

Cleveland at New England (New England, -16)

I wouldn't bet on this game. The Patriots are going to win, obviously, but no team in the NFL should be given sixteen points. I'll give them fifteen, though. New England 35, Cleveland 20

Arizona at St. Louis (Arizona, -3 1/2)

Mark Bulger and Steven Jackson aren't playing in this one, which means neither are the Rams. Then again, it's the Cardinals as road favorites. It doesn't really matter though, because St. Louis is the worst team in football, and will be replacing Bulger in the 2008 draft. Arizona 28, St. Louis 10

NY Giants at NY Jets (Giants, - 3 1/2)

There is no better vindication than to have Eric Magini's squad be horrible this year. Serves ya right, rat. I feel the Giants sneaking up on people, especially after mutilating Donovan McNabb. This week is a great confidence builder, and Tom Coughlin might keep his job. Well, until they lose in the first round of the playoffs. Giants 24, Jets 17

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (Indianapolis, -10)

Nobody believes in the Bucs, either. I like the match ups for Tampa Bay as far as covering the line is concerned, but the Colts are definitely the better team. I look for this to be a good, and surprisingly low scoring game. Chucky really has his guys going, and as we know, history sides with them to win the NFC South. Indianapolis 17, Tampa Bay 14

San Diego at Denver (Denver, -1)

This is the "who sucks the most in the worst division" game. While I do think the Chargers are no good, I have the same feelings about Denver. If you look at sheer talent, the Chargers would win easily. If you look at coaching, the Broncos should win easily. This is when the Chargers players should just stop listening to Norv Turner and play their game. San Diego 21, Denver 13

Baltimore at San Francisco (Baltimore, -3 1/2)

Are the Ravens really this bad? The line would say not, but I think that is more of a reflection of the Niners. Alex Smith is hurt, and the fact that he is seeking a second opinion on his injuries is a huge red flag. Still, Baltimore needs to find a way to score against a good Niners defense. Turnovers will be huge, so I like the Ravens. Baltimore 14, San Francisco 10

Chicago at Green Bay (Green Bay, - 3 1/2)

Why is Chicago seen as equals to the Packers? Do they even watch the games? Finally, the Bears can go 1-4 and everybody can start ranking them lower than 3-2 teams. Maybe. By next Monday, Chicago will be in full fledged Cubs mode, and we can stop giving precious air time to Bears games. On the other hand, Green Bay can go 5-0, so all of that air time will devoted to Favre and him acting like a schoolboy every time he throws a touchdown. Green Bay 27, Chicago 9

Dallas at Buffalo (Dallas, -10)

Yep, Dallas gets another cupcake to continue their surge towards the playoffs. Terrell Owens might get four scores in this game, and Tony Romo could run in another two. There are no more question marks for this team, despite what John Clayton might tell you. Their schedule is no worse than the Patriots'. They are dominating their games, which is what good teams do to the bad ones. Dallas 31, Buffalo 17

Free Willie

If I were to cheat on my girlfriend, she would leave me. If I were to bring home a cat, my dog would run away. If I were to lead a major league baseball team to the biggest collapse in history... I would keep my contract extension? Well, Willie Randolph did, as Mets general manager Omar Minaya announced that Randolph will not be fired. Exactly what do you need to do to get fired in this league, own a dog fighting ring? Some things, like the examples I have given above, are just too painful. At a certain point things just cannot stay the same.

Mets fans needed Willie to be fired. The 2008 season will be one of anxiety and pessimism with Randolph in the dugout, even if he is sans mustache. He will always be the face of the 2007 Mets. Much like the fans here in Kansas City must reluctantly let go of Mike Sweeney, the face of the franchise during their worst years, New Yorkers need to rid themselves of any evidence of what has transpired over the past month. While it might not have been Randolph's fault, he has been the face of it. Not Tom Glavine or any other player, but Willie Randolph.

Like having to see an ex-girlfriend getting married or watching your beloved Rover frolic with new owners, some things are just too hard to bear. I mean, check out the above picture, a design from tshirthell.com. Randolph should not have accepted the Mets' offer, and respectfully walked away from the holocaust that was the 2007 season. He would have found another job, and if he really is a good manager, he would be rewarded. But no, he will be at Shea next spring. You might be able to rub the lipstick off your collar, but Mets fans will never get this taste out of their mouth until Randolph is gone.

180 Degrees In 1/4 Of The Time

When it comes to teams pulling a complete 180, the NFL is like no other league. With 53-man squads and a strict salary cap, it becomes obvious how important the roles of the general manager, coaches and the draft really are. As I look to the division standings, I simply cannot believe what I see. The first quarter of the season is over, and the three teams with the worst records in 2006 - Oakland, Detroit and Cleveland - are a combined 7-5. The teams with the best records in 2006 - San Diego, Baltimore and Chicago - are a combined 4-8. Let's see who needs to step it up in October.

NFC East

Dallas sits atop as one of the NFL's four unbeaten teams. Outscoring their opponents 151-79, they are clearly the elite team of the entire NFC. Washington has a lot to prove after squandering their lead against the Giants, who treated Donovan McNabb like a pinata Sunday night. Luckily it's the NFC, so the bottom three can fight for a wild card, but the Cowboys are going to win this division... by next week.

NFC North

I find it funny that people aren't sold on Green Bay yet. They are making the playoffs, believe me. Their schedule from now on is: Chicago (twice), Washington, Denver, KC, Minnesota, Carolina, Detroit (twice), Dallas, Oakland and St. Louis. They could go 14-2. Detroit is currently looking good, but they have to play defense if they want to win the North. It should be an interesting race between the two. Chicago and Minnesota? You're done, thanks for playing.

NFC South

Since the NFC South has been in existence, the team that has finished last has won the division the following year every single time. Last year's losers? Tampa Bay, who is sittin' pretty atop of this horrible division. They just hammered the Panthers, they've already hammered the Saints, and the Falcons have Joey Harrington playing quarterback and the Son of Sam playing cornerback. Will Cadillac being out for the season give room for Drew Brees and the Ain'ts to come charging back? Don't count on it.

NFC West

The Rams rank 29th in total offense. The Niners rank 32nd. Feeling the excitement yet? While Scott Linehan is warming up Norv Turner's seat and Mike Nolan is wrapping his designer Reebok tie around the ceiling fan, the West is all about Seattle and Arizona. The two-quarterback monster that Ken Whisenhunt has put together beat Seattle already, but the Seahawks get to face Pittsburgh next week, who the Cardinals just beat, so let's pick this up from there.

AFC East

Patriots win.

AFC North

I thought this was supposed to be the best divison in football? Well, the Browns already have two divisional wins, and if it weren't for Timeout Fiasco Part Deux, they would be 3-1. Right up there with Hugh Hefner and the Jagermeister Girls, Mike Tomlin has the easiest job ever. Because unlike Hefner, the Ravens cannot score, and just like the Jager Girls, the Bengals are all flash and never put out. The scene of Chad Johnson and Carson Palmer screaming at each other at the sidelines Monday night pretty much tells the story of Cincy. Maybe they should just start shooting each other again.

AFC South

Now, this is interesting, when you consider three of these teams are making the playoffs. The Colts will win the division, obviously, and then it's just a race for the Wild Card spots. Tennessee is in, since Vince Young could complete 9% of his passes the rest of the year and still go 10-6. Now it's between Jacksonville and Houston. If the Texans can't beat Atlanta on the road, why would I think they could make the playoffs? Congrats, J-Ville, you make the playoffs by default.

AFC West

You get the feeling that the AFC is starting to decline when you really look at it. The Chiefs are currently on top (1-0 in the division, with one less conference loss than Denver), which speaks volumes. Dwayne Bowe is currently booking his tickets to Hawaii, and so is Norv Turner, but for completely different reasons. The way it's looking right now, last year's 14-2 Chargers might finish last in the league's worst division with basically the same personnel. That's fantastic.

Rocky Mountain, No Way!

Bottom of the 13th. Down by two. The greatest closer in baseball history is on the mound. A double to lead off, things are looking bright. Another double, down by one! A triple, the game is tied! Next runner is intentionally walked. Next pitch: a fly ball to right, caught... the runner tags up... there's going to be a play at the plate... he might not make it... here it comes... the catcher drops it! But wait. No signal yet from the umpire... SAFE! The Rockies win! Unbelievable! THE ROCKIES WIN! But wait, the runner never touched home plate...

... and it doesn't matter. The playoffs are set, and the Rockies won their fourteenth of their last fifteen games to get in. It's pretty clear that Matt Holliday didn't get his hand on the plate at the end of last night's thrilling 9-8 win over the Padres. Umpire Tim McClelland seemed as if he knew Holliday was out, but after a short pause declared him safe. Was it a makeup call from an earlier play, where Garrett Atkins had a home run called back in the seventh inning? Or perhaps revenge from the fraternity of umpires for the suspension of colleague Mike Winters, who was suspended for the season after the Milton Bradley incident? Holliday may have never actually scored that winning run, but it doesn't matter, and here's why: Colorado was going to win anyways.

I know that doesn't heal the Grand Canyon sized wound Padres fans received late Monday night, but it's the truth. Trevor Hoffman, the game's only player ever to record 500 saves, was getting rocked. Two runners would have still been on, and there is nothing - nothing - that would have kept the Rockies from winning this one. In the 163rd game of a 162 game season, San Diego came out with the best pitcher in the NL and the most successful closer ever, and could not get it done. While the next 24 hours will be a debate on the controversial call at home plate, it changes nothing. By Wednesday, we will be gearing up for the playoffs, and everybody whose horse is not in the race will be cheering on the boys from Colorado.

This is why we watch, folks. This is what sports are all about. Sudden death, a classic battle, an amazing comeback, controversial calls - everything we love about athletics. It makes you forget about work for a while. Your debt is gone if only for a little bit. Call in sick, crack open a beer, put on ESPN, and relive this moment as long as you can. Not only if you're a Rockies fan, but if you are a sports fan at all.

Week 4: All Bets Are Off

There are very good reasons why I don't bet on sporting events. I don't like putting money on human beings, because there's no way to really know how they are going to respond to certain situations. It either comes down to educational guessing or throwing knives at logos. Regardless of your philosophies, it is all a crap shoot. This somewhat explains my 7-6 record against the lines this week (minus tonight's game). However, there were some highlights. For example, the Indy/Denver score, and my stranglehold on the NFC North.

*Real scores in are italics, my predictions in bold*

Oakland at Miami, 35-17, 17-14

If not for the horrid last second field goal timeout fiasco, Oakland would be the team to beat in the AFC West. Yeah, feel free to read that again. I loved it when Dante Culpepper taunted the Miami fans, and then loathed it when he downplayed it afterwards. At least be consistent. By the way, after the Nick Saban backhand, and now Culpepper's, it really sucks being a Dolphins fan right now. I had Oakland covering the +4, even if I had them losing.

Houston at Atlanta, 16-26, 24-10

Note to self: do not pick Houston as road favorites ever again, especially when their best player isn't playing. Ok, now that I cleared that up, congratulations to Joey Harrington. His completion percentage was nearly 80%, with two touchdowns and zero picks. This was also the opposite of a "revenge game" (see: Pittsburgh at Arizona). Matt Schaub was lucky to have the chance to get out of Atlanta, so there was nothing to be upset about. I had Houston covering the -3, they got thumped.

Baltimore at Cleveland, 13-27, 20-3

Is it time to add Derek Anderson to your fantasy squad? Let's wait on that for another week. But any game that you have Steve McNair throw 53 times, you're in trouble. While the Browns might not be this year's Saints (see: Tampa Bay), they are definitely better than most people realized. This might be a good learning year for Brady Quinn. I had Baltimore covering the -4 1/2, and I will never do that again.

Chicago at Detroit, 27-37, 20-24

Chicago is no good. This seemed relatively obvious to me before the year started, especially since no "expert" seemed to think so. Rex Grossman had to be smiling inside, since Detroit's record 34-point fourth quarter shows the world that Chicago's woes weren't the byproduct of who was behind center. Still, they had to make the move. I had Detroit covering the +3 1/2, and they were kind.

Green Bay at Minnesota, 23-16, 28-13

Brett Favre is on steroids. Well, probably not, but is there any other explanation? He is a freak. Favre currently has a four to one touchdown/interception ratio, and a 97.3 quarterback rating. Now, he is taking away everything from Dan Marino. Dan even had the rights to Best Cameo (Ace Ventura) and got upstaged by Favre (There's Something About Mary). With my two best fantasy starters being Kitna and AP, no wonder I'm paying attention to the North so much. I had Green Bay covering the -2, and Favre carries his receiver off the field.

St. Louis at Dallas, 7-35, 27-30

I completely overestimated the Rams. They are done. St. Louis has scored 39 points this year, and given up 103. And seeing as their whole offense, who used to be referred to as "The Greatest Show On Turf", are as old as P.T. Barnum, expect some down years for the Rams. Luckily, it's a baseball town. I had St. Louis covering the +13, and am shamed.

New York Jets at Buffalo, 14-17, 27-10

I don't even care that I was way off in this one. What I do care about is this: while the Oakland/Miami game was late due to lighting, CBS was showing this game in the meantime. I live in Kansas. Why would I want to see that garbage? Time Warner Cable, you're dead to me. Oh, and farewell, J.P. Losman. Trent Edwards is now the man in Buffalo. I had the J-E-T-S covering the -3 1/2, and then I dropped Pennington for Culpepper.

Tampa Bay at Carolina, 20-7, 17-10

David Carr's 19-41 preformace shows you that it just wasn't Houston's fault for his demise. Then again, Carolina has consistently been the most disappointing team since their Super Bowl appearance in 2003. I believe John Fox is done. On the other end, Coach Gruden has revived the defense down in Tampa. They might be this year's where-did-they-come-from team. I had Tampa covering the +3, and they swashbuckled Carr.

Seattle at San Francisco, 23-3, 14-21

While San Fran might not have won even if Alex Smith didn't get injured on the third play, I would like to believe it wouldn't had been this bad. Once again, the country dubs one team as "the sleeper", then something like this always happens. As predictable as the Madden curse, or SI picking the NCAA basketball champion, it is set in stone. I had the Niners covering the +2, and they only scored 3.

Pittsburgh at Arizona, 14-21, 17-13

The only way this game could have been better is if Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt would have slapped Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin after the game - or if it were in Pittsburgh. I can only describe Whisenhunt's approach to Leinart as "fascinating". It actually might be working to use Kurt Warner, which goes against all common logic of professional football. The Steelers might regret not getting this guy when they could. I had Arizona covering the +6, and Ken made the Steelers look like Barbie.

Kansas City at San Diego, 30-16, 24-14

With the clock ticking down, Chargers fans were heard chanting "Marty! Marty!" while GM A.J. Smith was cleaning his office and clicking the refresh button on Careerbuilder.com. Let's see, you fired a coach after a 14-2 season, and hired a coach with a 40% winning percentage, all of this after you watch your good in-house coaches go to other teams. Fantastic. Also, if Herm Edwards let's the Chiefs open up their offense now that Dwayne Bowe is going off, then they very well could win a weak AFC West. I had my hometown team covering the +12 1/2 (!), and I shall say they did so.

Denver at Indianapolis, 20-38, 21-38

Oh, so close. Look at the above game's line, now look at the 9 1/2 on this one. It makes no sense to me. What's scary is that the Colts look even better than last year's championship team. However, the field is also better. The Nov. 4 game against New England will be very interesting. I had Indianapolis covering.

Speaking of the Patriots, since they don't play until tonight, I'll mention this here. An unnamed host on ESPN radio last night said that Dallas isn't an elite team because they haven't played anybody. The Patriots have played the Jets, Chargers and Bills, who have a combined record of 3-9. The Cowboys have played the Giants, Dolphins, Bears and Rams, who have a combined record of 3-13. So, using that logic, the Patriots aren't an elite team either, even if they beat the one-win Bengals. And these guys get paid to talk about sports...

Philadelphia at New York Giants, 3-16, 35-21

Once again, this is the reason I don't bet on humans. The Giants had a record-tying 12 sacks Sunday night, half of which came from DE Osi Umenyiora. Philly fans will no doubt be blaming McNabb because of his immobility, but this is all on the Eagles' offensive line and Andy Reid's inability to adjust. Umenyiora completely dominated LT William Justice, but the Philly coaching staff still had them one-on-one in the fourth quarter. Thank goodness for the Mets. I had Philadelphia covering the -2 1/2, and to say the least, I was wrong.

*Missed observation from Saturday: I forgot to give a shout out to Texas DE Aaron Lewis, who is the only white guy I have ever seen wear a skullcap. No wonder they lost.